🪙 股利折现模型（DDM）计算器Dividend Discount Model Calculator
用戈登增长模型（股利固定增长）或两阶段模型（先高速增长若干年，再永续稳定增长）估算股票内在价值，并与当前股价比较。Estimate a stock's intrinsic value with the Gordon growth model (constant dividend growth) or a two-stage model (fast growth for some years, then steady growth forever), and compare it with the share price.
使用说明与常见问题How-to & FAQ
「股利折现模型（DDM）计算器」是什么？What is the Dividend Discount Model Calculator tool?
用戈登增长模型（股利固定增长）或两阶段模型（先高速增长若干年，再永续稳定增长）估算股票内在价值，并与当前股价比较。Estimate a stock's intrinsic value with the Gordon growth model (constant dividend growth) or a two-stage model (fast growth for some years, then steady growth forever), and compare it with the share price.
如何使用「股利折现模型（DDM）计算器」？How do I use the Dividend Discount Model Calculator tool?
在「股利折现模型（DDM）计算器」中，填写「模型」、「最近一年每股股利 D₀」、「要求回报率 %」、「永续增长率 %」、「高速增长期增长率 %」等参数，结果会随输入实时计算并显示在下方。In the Dividend Discount Model Calculator: Fill in "Model", "Last year's dividend per share D₀", "Required return %", "Long-run growth rate %", "High-growth rate %"; results are recalculated instantly as you type.
戈登增长模型是什么？What is the Gordon growth model?
假设股利每年按固定比例 g 永续增长，股票价值 = D₁ ÷ (r − g)，其中 D₁ = D₀ × (1 + g)，r 是投资者要求的回报率。只适用于增长稳定、持续派息的公司，且 g 必须低于 r。It assumes dividends grow at a constant rate g forever, so value = D₁ ÷ (r − g), with D₁ = D₀ × (1 + g) and r the required return. It suits stable, dividend-paying companies, and g must be below r.
两阶段模型怎么算？How does the two-stage model work?
先逐年计算高速增长期每年股利的现值，再在高速期末用戈登模型算终值 = 末年股利 × (1 + g) ÷ (r − g)，折现回今天后相加。It discounts each dividend in the high-growth years, then values the rest with the Gordon model at the end of that stage — terminal value = last dividend × (1 + g) ÷ (r − g) — discounted back to today, and adds the two.
要求回报率怎么定？How do I choose the required return?
常用资本资产定价模型（CAPM）：无风险利率 + β × 市场风险溢价。可以先用本站的权益成本计算器估算。A common choice is CAPM: risk-free rate + beta × market risk premium. The cost of equity calculator on this site can estimate it.
计算结果可以作为最终依据吗？Can I rely on the result?
「股利折现模型（DDM）计算器」按标准公式计算，结果仅供参考；实际金额以银行、券商或税务机关的规则和四舍五入方式为准。The Dividend Discount Model Calculator uses standard formulas and is for estimation only; actual figures depend on your bank, broker or tax authority's rules and rounding.
「股利折现模型（DDM）计算器」免费吗？需要注册吗？Is the Dividend Discount Model Calculator free? Do I need an account?
「股利折现模型（DDM）计算器」完全免费，无需注册或安装，打开网页即可使用，手机和电脑都能用；输入的内容只在你的浏览器本地处理。The Dividend Discount Model Calculator is completely free with no sign-up or install and works on phones and desktops; what you enter is processed only in your browser.